Causal effect of MFOZ

Title: Closer to causality: How effective is spatial planning in governing built-up land expansion in Fujian Province, China? Research objective: The Major Function Oriented Zone (MFOZ), the first strategic spatial plan in China, is developed to achieve a coordinated regional development, through spatial regulation and zoning of development. The MFOZ he MFOZ divided land into four major function-oriented zones: The development-optimized zone, the development-prioritised zone, the development-restricted zone, and the development-prohibited zone. We used propensity score marching to evaluate the effect of the MFOZ on built-up land expansion in Fujian Province over three time intervals (2013–2015, 2013–2018 and 2013–2020). Data: Data.xlsx contains the variables of 954 towns in Fujian Province. Town_ID is the town unique ID; County_ID is the county unique ID; City_ID is the city unique ID; MFOZ is the the development-prioritised zone and the development-restricted zone (The development-optimized zone and the development-prohibited zone are excluded); Builtup_13_15 is the built-up land expansion from 2013 to 2015; Builtup_13_18 is the built-up land expansion from 2013 to 2018; Builtup_13_20 is the built-up land expansion from 2013 to 2020; Dis2water is the Euclidean distance from the town to the nearest waterbody; Slope is the the average slope within the town; GDP is the average GDP in 2010 within the town; Pop is the average population in 2010 within the town; Road is the average population in 2010 within the town; Dis2city is the Euclidean distance from the town to the nearest prefectural city centre; Nei_Arable, Nei_Forest, and Nei_Built.up are the area of arable land, forest land, and built-up land neighbouring town i in 2010. Method: we used the propensity score matching to compare the changes in the amount of built-up land in the towns of the development-prioritised zone with the matched towns of the development-restricted zone. Additionally, we used three evaluation intervals (2013–2015, 2013–2018 and 2013–2020) to evaluate temporal variation in the causal effect of the MFOZ on built-up land expansion.标题：趋近因果推论：中国福建省空间规划管控城镇建设用地扩张的成效如何？ 研究目标：主体功能区规划（Major Function Oriented Zone, MFOZ）作为中国首个战略性空间规划，旨在通过空间管制与开发分区实现区域协调发展。该规划将国土空间划分为四大主体功能区：优化开发区域、重点开发区域、限制开发区域以及禁止开发区域。本研究采用倾向得分匹配法（propensity score matching），针对2013–2015年、2013–2018年及2013–2020年三个时间区间，评估主体功能区规划对福建省城镇建设用地扩张的影响。 数据集：Data.xlsx包含福建省954个乡镇的相关变量，各变量说明如下： Town_ID：乡镇唯一识别码； County_ID：县域唯一识别码； City_ID：市域唯一识别码； MFOZ：分组变量，涵盖重点开发区域与限制开发区域（排除优化开发区域与禁止开发区域）； Builtup_13_15：2013年至2015年的城镇建设用地扩张规模； Builtup_13_18：2013年至2018年的城镇建设用地扩张规模； Builtup_13_20：2013年至2020年的城镇建设用地扩张规模； Dis2water：乡镇至最近水体的欧氏距离； Slope：乡镇辖区内的平均坡度； GDP：乡镇2010年的地区生产总值均值； Pop：乡镇2010年的常住人口均值； Road：乡镇2010年的人口均值； Dis2city：乡镇至最近地级市中心城区的欧氏距离； Nei_Arable、Nei_Forest及Nei_Built.up：分别为2010年乡镇i周边的耕地、林地及城镇建设用地面积。 研究方法：本研究采用倾向得分匹配法，对比重点开发区域乡镇与匹配后的限制开发区域乡镇的城镇建设用地规模变化。此外，本研究设置三个评估时间区间（2013–2015年、2013–2018年及2013–2020年），以分析主体功能区规划对城镇建设用地扩张的因果效应的时序变化特征。