Climate Change–Driven Projections of Suitable Habitat for Phleum pratense across China

In the context of global climate change, clarifying the effects of climatic factors on the potential distribution of forage grass species is of critical importance for grassland development and ecological management. In this study, Phleum pratense was selected as the focal species, and an ensemble species distribution modeling framework was constructed using the Biomod2 platform. After excluding highly correlated environmental variables, 17 ecologically meaningful predictors were retained to project the potential habitat suitability patterns of P. pratense and their future dynamics. The results indicate that the ensemble model achieved high predictive accuracy. Annual mean UV-B radiation, mean temperature of the driest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter were identified as the primary climatic factors shaping the potential distribution of P. pratense. Under current climatic conditions, highly suitable habitats occupy a relatively limited and fragmented area, whereas low- and moderately suitable habitats are predominant. Under future climate scenarios, increasing emission levels are associated with an overall contraction of moderately and highly suitable areas, accompanied by a continuous expansion of unsuitable habitats. In addition, the centroid of highly suitable habitats is projected to shift northwestward. These findings suggest that climate change may substantially alter the potential suitable range of P. pratense by modifying key climatic gradients and stress-period conditions. This study provides a scientific basis for the utilization of P. pratense germplasm resources and the sustainable development of plateau grassland systems.