Supplementary documentation: Bayesian inference in a structural model of family home prices

We present a representative consumer model of housing consumption and analyse the conseqences of the no arbitrage condition for housing prices. Excess returns of housing over the riskless rate admit an explanation based on weakly separable preferences and collateral constraints. A Bayesian vector autoregression model shows that the logarithmic rent/price ratio is a persistent variable and the dynamics of housing prices over the business cycle is mainly determined by financial factors.本文构建了一个代表性消费者的住房消费模型，并剖析了住房价格无套利条件（no arbitrage condition）所产生的影响。住房相较于无风险利率的超额收益，可通过弱可分偏好与抵押约束（collateral constraints）得到合理解释。贝叶斯向量自回归（Bayesian vector autoregression）模型结果显示，对数租售比属于持续性变量，而经济周期内住房价格的动态变化主要由金融因素决定。