Understanding Human Development Index of Nepal: A Bayesian Quantile Regression Approach

The present study explores influence of macro-economic variables on the overall wellbeing of Nepalese citizens measured through Human Development Index (HDI). In the present paper, classical Quantile Regression (QR) and Bayesian Quantile regression on HDI is found to be influenced by the mean years of schooling, life expectancy at birth, and purchasing power parity. Six districts of Bhaktapur, Chitawan, Kaski, Kathmandu, Lalitpur, and Manang are observed to have a moderate level of HD whereas majority of 69 districts experience a low level of HD as measured through HDI. Not surprisingly, the national capital Kathmandu records the highest HD. A peculiarity for Nepal is observed that all other districts are placed alarmingly low in respect of HDI from Kathmandu. HDI thus serves to accentuate the inequity and deprivation among districts of Nepal which poses a significant challenge to the goals and initiatives of the political legislation and administrative policies. Priorities for policy intervention and resource allocation for uplifting HD in districts should be targeted proactively by Nepalese government with inputs from the stakeholders among the local population. Statistical Investigations are carried through classical and Bayesian quantile regression approach.本研究探讨了宏观经济变量对尼泊尔国民整体福祉的影响，该福祉以人类发展指数（Human Development Index，HDI）进行衡量。本文采用经典分位数回归（Quantile Regression，QR）与贝叶斯分位数回归方法开展分析，结果显示，人类发展指数受到平均受教育年限、出生时预期寿命以及购买力平价的显著影响。研究观察到，巴克塔普尔、奇旺、卡斯卡、加德满都、拉利特普尔与马南共6个县的人类发展指数处于中等水平，其余69个县的人类发展指数则普遍处于较低水平。不出所料，作为尼泊尔首都的加德满都县，其人类发展指数位列全国首位。尼泊尔存在一个显著特征：相较于加德满都县，其余所有县的人类发展指数均处于极低水平，这一差距令人警醒。因此，人类发展指数进一步凸显了尼泊尔各地区之间的不平等与发展剥夺现状，这对该国政治立法与行政政策的目标及相关举措构成了严峻挑战。尼泊尔政府应结合当地民众中的利益相关方意见，主动针对各地区制定政策干预与资源分配优先级，以提升当地的人类发展水平。本研究的统计探究均通过经典分位数回归与贝叶斯分位数回归方法完成。