Spatial models indicating avian influenza transmission risk at the interface of domestic poultry and wild birds in China

Emergence of avian influenza viruses with high lethality to humans, such as the currently circulating highly pathogenic A(H5N1) and A(H7N9) cause serious concern for the global economic and public health sectors. To improve our understanding of the spatial and temporal trends in transmission risk we developed a model that predicts hotspots of novel virus emergence between domestic and wild birds and incorporates H5N1 risk factors. Models were produced at 30 km spatial resolution across two temporal seasons. Files are named using a TransmisisonDirection_Season_DataType format such that Transmission direction can end in a (poultry to waterfowl) or b (waterfowl to poultry), Season can be breeding (br) or wintering (wi), and data type can be the mean predicted transmission (mn) or the coefficient of variation (cv).