Forecasting suppression of invasive Sea Lamprey in Lake Superior: data and code for Bayesian forecast model

Resource managers frequently are tasked with mitigating or reversing adverse effects of invasive species through management policies and actions.  In Lake Superior, of the Laurentian Great Lakes, invasive sea lamprey populations are suppressed to protect valuable fish stocks.  However, the relationship between choice of long-term control strategy and the future chance of achieving the suppression target is unclear.
Using a 60+ year time-series of suppression effort and monitoring data from 50 assessment sites located on Lake Superior tributaries, we developed a Bayesian state-space model to forecast the probability of suppressing lamprey below the suppression target.
With annual application of lampricide (i.e., lamprey-specific pesticide) at historical mean levels, we forecasted a 15% chance of achieving the Lake Superior sea lamprey suppression target in 2040.
Increasing lampricide effort and/or supplementing lampricide control with age-1 recruitment reduction increased suppression cha...