Descriptive statistics for 1,000 simulated outbreaks using the baseline model (model 2) and reference dataset (dataset A) (i.e., PCR results).

Model 2 assumed that all 1,000 simulated outbreaks had the same value of mean latent and infections periods (estimated using the results of PCR assay), whereas values of R0 were all sampled from the same gamma distribution with parameters κ and ρ at the median value of the posterior distributions. Parameters' meaning: Duration, duration of the epidemic in days; Tpeak, time of the epidemic peak (days after infection); D90%, time interval (days) during which the mid-90% of the cases occur (90% incidence interval); Ipeak, peak number of infective birds; Rpeak, seroprevalence at the epidemic peak; Rfinal, seroprevalence at the end of the outbreak; Tdet50, time by which a serological sample of 10 turkeys would result in detection with 50% probability (days).