War Makes the Regime: Regional Rebellions and Political Militarization Worldwide

War can make states, but can it also make regimes? This essay brings the growing literatures on authoritarianism and coups into conversation with the older research tradition analyzing the interplay between war and state formation. We offer a global empirical test of the argument that regional rebellions are especially likely to give rise to militarized authoritarian regimes. While the argument was initially developed in the context of Southeast Asia, the article deepens the original theory by furnishing a deductively grounded framework embedded in rational actor approaches in the coup and civil-military literatures. In support of our argument, quantitative tests confirm that regional rebellions make political militarization both more likely and more enduring, not simply in a single region, but more generally.战争可以缔造国家，但它能否同样塑造政权？本文将日益壮大的威权主义与政变研究文献，与分析战争与国家形成之间互动关系的经典研究传统相结合。我们针对“地区叛乱更易催生军事化威权政权”这一论点开展了全球性的实证检验。尽管该论点最初是在东南亚语境下提出的，但本文通过构建一套基于理性行动者理论、植根于政变与军民关系研究文献的演绎框架，深化了原有理论。为佐证本文论点，量化检验结果证实，地区叛乱不仅在单一地区，更在更广泛的范围内提升了政治军事化发生的可能性与持续性。