Body mass and hibernation microclimate may predict bat susceptibility to white-nose syndrome

In multi-host disease systems, differences in mortality between species may reflect variation in host physiology, morphology, and behavior. In systems where the pathogen can persist in the environment, microclimate conditions, and the adaptation of the host to these conditions, may also impact mortality. White-nose syndrome is an emerging disease of hibernating bats caused by an environmentally persistent fungus, Pseudogymnoascus destructans. We assessed the effects of body mass, torpid metabolic rate, evaporative water loss, and hibernaculum temperature and water vapor deficit on predicted overwinter survival of bats infected by P. destructans. We used a hibernation energetics model in an individual-based model framework to predict the probability of survival of nine bat species at eight sampling sites across North America. The model predicts time until fat exhaustion as a function of species-specific host characteristics, hibernaculum microclimate, and fungal growth. We fit a linear m...