<b>Ecological Niche Modeling of the Fall Armyworm (</b><b><i>Spodoptera frugiperda</i></b><b>) in China: Application of Meta-Analysis and Biomod2</b>

<i>Spodoptera frugiperda</i>, commonly known as the fall armyworm, is a globally invasive pest that poses a significant threat to agricultural production and food security. To predict its future distribution in China, this study employed a combination of meta-analysis and the Biomod2 model to systematically evaluate changes in potential habitat suitability under various climate scenarios. By integrating data from global literature, key environmental factors influencing the survival of the fall armyworm—particularly temperature and humidity—were identified, along with the impact of these climatic variables on different developmental stages. Using the Biomod2 model under a moderate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), species distribution projections revealed a significant expansion of potential habitats, especially in the Yangtze River Basin, South China, East China, as well as northern and high-altitude regions. As temperatures rise to 27-32°C, the developmental rate, reproductive capacity, and adaptability of the fall armyworm are expected to increase substantially. By the 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s, not only will the area of highly suitable habitats expand, but the centroid of suitable regions will also shift northward and westward. This indicates that climate warming may facilitate the pest's reproduction and expansion within current habitats and potentially enable its establishment in new regions. However, the study also found that habitat expansion may be accompanied by the loss of suitability in certain areas, particularly by the 2050s, a period characterized by more severe climate change. This research highlights the profound impact of climate change on the future spread of the fall armyworm and provides a scientific basis for risk assessment and control strategies. It recommends enhanced monitoring and early warning in high-risk regions, along with optimized control measures to address the dynamic shifts in habitat distribution. The study not only aids in understanding the distribution dynamics of the fall armyworm under climate change but also offers crucial scientific support for addressing future agricultural challenges.草地贪夜蛾（Spodoptera frugiperda）是一种全球性入侵害虫，对农业生产与粮食安全构成严重威胁。为预测其在中国的未来适生分布，本研究结合荟萃分析（meta-analysis）与Biomod2模型，系统评估了不同气候情景下其潜在栖息地适宜性的变化。研究整合了全球文献数据，明确了影响草地贪夜蛾生存的关键环境因子——尤以温度与湿度为重——并解析了这些气候变量对其不同发育阶段的影响。在中等排放情景（SSP2-4.5）下，基于Biomod2模型的物种分布预测结果显示，其潜在适生栖息地将显著扩张，尤以长江流域、华南、华东及北方与高海拔区域为甚。当气温升至27-32℃时，草地贪夜蛾的发育速率、繁殖能力与适应性预计将大幅提升。至21世纪50年代、70年代与90年代，不仅高度适生栖息地面积将进一步扩张，适生区域的质心也将向北、向西迁移。这表明气候变暖或可促进该害虫在现有栖息地内的繁殖与扩散，并使其有望在新区域定殖。但研究同时发现，栖息地扩张或伴随部分区域适宜性的丧失，尤以气候变化更为剧烈的21世纪50年代为然。本研究揭示了气候变化对草地贪夜蛾未来扩散的深远影响，为其风险评估与防控策略制定提供了科学依据。研究建议在高风险区域强化监测预警，并优化防控措施以应对适生分布的动态变化。本研究不仅有助于理解气候变化背景下草地贪夜蛾的分布动态，更为应对未来农业挑战提供了关键科技支撑。