The Effect of Institutional Factors on Financial Deepening: Evidence from 50 African Countries

This paper investigates the impact of institutional factors on financial deepening and its implications on bank credit in Africa. The paper employs different panel econometric models to examine the heterogeneity of 50 African countries from 2000 to 2019. The estimators include panel corrected standard errors, system generalized method of moments, quantile and threshold regressions. The results show that rule of law, regulatory quality, government effectiveness, voice and accountability, control of corruption, and political stability significantly influence financial deepening in Africa. However, government effectiveness has a higher effect on middle- and high-income countries, while other indicators have a high impact on low-income countries. All institutional indicators have stronger effects, almost double, at higher financial levels than for countries with lower levels. Government effectiveness and regulatory quality impact financial deepening more for countries with strong institutions than weak ones. Thus, the relationship between institutional qualities and credit provided by banks is non-monotonic. The findings suggest that strengthening appropriate institutional factors based on country heterogeneity may effectively stimulate debt financing in Africa, the primary source of financing for small and medium-sized enterprises and entrepreneurs. The novelty of this paper is that previous studies did not sufficiently scrutinize the heterogeneity of the structure of African economies – i.e. differences in institution, credit and income levels.本文探究制度因素（institutional factors）对非洲金融深化（financial deepening）的影响，及其对非洲银行信贷（bank credit）的启示意义。本文采用多种面板计量模型（panel econometric models），对2000年至2019年间50个非洲国家的异质性（heterogeneity）特征展开研究，所采用的估计方法包括面板校正标准误（panel corrected standard errors）、系统广义矩估计（system generalized method of moments）、分位数回归与阈值回归（quantile and threshold regressions）。研究结果表明，法治（rule of law）水平、监管质量（regulatory quality）、政府效能（government effectiveness）、话语权与问责制（voice and accountability）、腐败控制（control of corruption）以及政治稳定性（political stability），均对非洲的金融深化具有显著影响。不过，政府效能对中高收入国家（middle- and high-income countries）的金融深化推动作用更强，而其余制度指标则对低收入国家（low-income countries）的影响更为显著；在金融发展水平较高的国家中，所有制度指标的影响强度均是金融发展水平较低国家的近两倍。相较于制度建设薄弱的国家，政府效能与监管质量对制度完善国家的金融深化的促进作用更为显著。由此可见，制度质量与银行信贷供给之间的关系呈非单调（non-monotonic）特征。本研究结果显示，结合国家异质性特征强化适配性制度建设，可有效提振非洲的债务融资（debt financing）规模——而债务融资正是中小企业（small and medium-sized enterprises）与创业者的主要融资渠道。本文的创新之处在于，既往研究未充分审视非洲经济结构的异质性特征，即制度、信贷与收入水平层面的差异。