Parkfield Earthquake Prediction, Spring 1989: Taft (M1096C)

A model of public perception and response to communication about natural hazards risk was constructed. It was estimated on data from samples of households in three communities at risk in the Parkfield earthquake prediction experiment. Estimated model parameters revealed consistent conclusions. Communicated risk information that was reinforced through additional communications and/or social cues precipitated an interactive personal search for more information; personal definitions of risk and what to do emerged; and these social constructions directed how the public responded. Perceived risk only indirectly impacted public action through information searching. This suggests that searching behavior should intervene between perception of risk and response in the theory of public risk communication.本研究构建了面向自然灾害风险传播的公众认知与响应模型。该模型基于帕克菲尔德（Parkfield）地震预测实验中三个受风险影响社区的家庭样本数据完成参数估计，其参数估计结果得出了一致性结论。经额外传播及/或社会线索强化的风险传播信息，会触发公众开展交互式的主动信息搜寻行为；公众会形成自身对风险及应对举措的认知界定，而此类社会建构过程将主导公众的响应模式。感知到的风险仅通过信息搜寻这一中介路径，对公众行动产生间接影响。这意味着在公众风险传播理论框架中，信息搜寻行为应作为风险认知与公众响应之间的关键中介环节。