Predictive tools for white syndromes in Northern Australia: targeting monitoring and informing management (MTSRF 2.5i.3, JCU, Uni Melbourne)

Climate change has emerged as the single greatest threat to coral reefs. The climate change threat will take many forms and includes projections that there will be higher abundances of coral diseases. Links have already been made between high temperatures and outbreaks of the disease ‘white syndrome’ in the Indo-Pacific but little is known about the disease due, in part, to not knowing where outbreaks will occur. We present results of a regression model that suggests the most severe outbreaks of white syndrome observed on the Great Barrier Reef, in late 2002, only occurred at sites that experienced high rates of temperature increase during summer months, rates not seen again in the GBR until 2009. We have produced an image for each summer since and including 2002 that colour-grades and maps white syndrome outbreak likelihood for northern Australia as high or low. The images are based on retrospective calculations of summer rates of temperature increase from high-resolution remotely sensed temperature data. The interactive tool produced from the images is the first like it for coral disease and forms the early warning system within a new coral disease outbreak response plan. The tool will help to target research and monitoring that can improve our understanding of white syndrome outbreaks and determine whether actions can be taken by managers to reduce the susceptibility of corals to such diseases (Maynard et al. in review).

The data, presented as images, have no units. Pixels have been coloured red (~1 km resolution) that experienced heating rates at least as great as was experienced at sites where outbreaks of white syndromes occurred in the southern GBR late in 2002.

This dataset was developed as part of the MTSRF program.

Cite this dataset: Maynard J., Willis B. (2009) Predicting outbreaks of the coral disease white syndrome in northern Australia, eAtlas, https://eatlas.org.au/data/uuid/eaece897-3e9a-47ea-94cb-ee94195dac98

气候变化已成为珊瑚礁面临的最严峻威胁。气候变化的威胁形式多样，其中一项预测是珊瑚病害的发生频次与规模将显著提升。目前已有研究证实，印度洋-太平洋海域的海水高温与该病害（white syndrome，白色综合征）的暴发存在关联，但由于无法预判病害暴发的发生地点，学界对该病害的认知仍十分有限。本研究展示了一款回归模型的分析结果：2002年末大堡礁（Great Barrier Reef，简称GBR）观测到的最严重白色综合征暴发事件，仅发生在夏季升温速率较高的海域，而该类升温速率直至2009年才再次在大堡礁海域出现。我们针对2002年及之后的每个夏季生成了一张图像，对澳大利亚北部海域的白色综合征暴发风险进行分级着色与空间制图，将风险划分为高、低两类。该类图像基于高分辨率遥感温度数据，通过回溯计算夏季升温速率生成。基于上述图像开发的交互式工具为全球首个珊瑚病害相关同类工具，可作为新型珊瑚病害暴发应对方案中的预警系统。该工具将辅助靶向开展研究与监测工作，以加深学界对白色综合征暴发规律的认知，并助力管理者评估是否可采取措施降低珊瑚对该类病害的易感性（Maynard等，待刊）。

本数据集以图像形式呈现，无单位。升温速率不低于2002年末大堡礁南部海域白色综合征暴发海域升温速率的像素将被标记为红色（空间分辨率约1 km）。

本数据集由MTSRF计划资助开发。

数据集引用格式：Maynard J., Willis B. (2009) 澳大利亚北部海域珊瑚病害白色综合征暴发预测，eAtlas，https://eatlas.org.au/data/uuid/eaece897-3e9a-47ea-94cb-ee94195dac98