Ranges of Resistance: Terrain and the Incidence of Nonviolent Campaigns

We present the first analysis of the relationship between terrain and nonviolent civil resistance campaigns using cross-national data geocoded at the subnational level. We show that---unlike rugged terrain's well-established permissive effect on the incidence of civil wars---highly variable terrain is negatively associated with nonviolent resistance. We provide preliminary evidence that the causal mechanism underlying this relationship is the link between terrain and population density, a factor which is positively associated with the incidence of nonviolent campaigns. Physical geography is shaping politics through its influence on human geography.

本研究首次利用经地理编码的次国家级（subnational）跨国数据，针对地形与非暴力民权抵抗运动之间的关联展开分析。我们的研究发现：与崎岖地形对内战爆发已被学界广泛证实的助长效应不同，地形变异性较高的区域与非暴力抵抗运动呈负相关关系。本研究还提供了初步证据，表明该关联背后的因果机制在于地形与人口密度之间的联系——而人口密度这一因素与非暴力抵抗运动的发生呈正相关关系。自然地理通过影响人文地理，进而塑造政治格局。