Microcredit Impacts: Evidence from a Randomized Microcredit Program Placement Experiment by Compartamos Banco

We use a clustered randomized trial, and over 16,000 household surveys, to estimate impacts at the community level from a group lending expansion at 110 percent APR by the largest microlender in Mexico. We find no evidence of transformative impacts on 37 outcomes (although some estimates have large confidence intervals), measured at a mean of 27 months post-expansion, across six domains: microentrepreneurship, income, labor supply, expenditures, social status, and subjective well-being. We also examine distributional impacts using quantile regressions, given theory and evidence regarding negative impacts from borrowing at high interest rates, but do not find strong evidence for heterogeneity.本研究采用整群随机试验（clustered randomized trial）方法，结合超过16000份家庭调查问卷，针对墨西哥规模最大的小额信贷机构推出的年利率（Annual Percentage Rate, APR）为110%的团体信贷扩张项目，评估其对社区层面的影响。研究在项目扩张后平均27个月时开展测量，结果显示，在微型创业、收入、劳动供给、消费支出、社会地位及主观幸福感六大维度的37项观测指标中，未发现该项目存在变革性影响（尽管部分估计值的置信区间较宽）。考虑到高利率借贷会产生负面影响的相关理论与实证证据，本研究还通过分位数回归（quantile regressions）方法分析了该项目的分布层面影响，但未发现显著的异质性证据。