Data for projected impacts of climate, urbanization, water management, and wetland restoration on waterbird habitat in California's Central Valley

The Central Valley of California is one of the most important regions for wintering waterbirds in North America despite extensive anthropogenic landscape modification and decline of historical wetlands there. Like many other mediterranean-climate ecosystems across the globe, the Central Valley has been subject to a burgeoning human population and expansion and intensification of agricultural and urban development that have impacted wildlife habitats. Future effects of urban development, changes in water supply management, and precipitation and air temperature related to global climate change on area of waterbird habitat in the Central Valley are uncertain, yet potentially substantial. Therefore, we modeled area of waterbird habitats for 17 climate, urbanization, water supply management, and wetland restoration scenarios for years 2006-2099 using a water resources and scenario modeling framework. Planned wetland restoration largely compensated for adverse effects of climate, urbanization, and water supply management changes on habitat areas through 2065, but fell short thereafter for all except one scenario. Projected habitat reductions due to climate models were more frequent and greater than under the recent historical climate and their magnitude increased through time. After 2065, area of waterbird habitat in all scenarios that included severe warmer, drier climate was projected to be greater than 15 percent less than in the "existing" landscape most years. The greatest reduction in waterbird habitat occurred in scenarios that combined warmer, drier climate and plausible water supply management options affecting priority and delivery of water available for waterbird habitats. This scenario modeling addresses the complexity and uncertainties in the Central Valley landscape, use and management of related water supplies, and climate to inform waterbird habitat conservation and other resource management planning. Results indicate that increased wetland restoration and additional conservation and climate change adaptation strategies may be warranted to maintain habitat adequate to support waterbirds in the Central Valley. These data are used to support the following publication: Matchett EL, Fleskes JP (2017) Projected Impacts of Climate, Urbanization, Water Management, and Wetland Restoration on Waterbird Habitat in California's Central Valley. PLoS ONE 12(1): e0169780. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0169780

加利福尼亚中央谷地（Central Valley of California）是北美越冬水鸟最重要的分布区域之一，尽管该区域已遭受广泛的人为景观改造，且历史湿地持续退化。与全球其他多数地中海气候生态系统（mediterranean-climate ecosystems）类似，中央谷地面临着人口快速增长、农业与城市开发的扩张及集约化，上述活动均对野生动物栖息地造成了负面影响。未来城市开发、供水管理模式变革，以及与全球气候变化相关的降水与气温变化，对中央谷地水鸟栖息地（waterbird habitat）面积的影响尚不明确，但其潜在影响可能极为显著。为此，本研究依托水资源与情景建模框架（water resources and scenario modeling framework），针对2006至2099年间的17种气候、城市化、供水管理及湿地恢复（wetland restoration）情景，对水鸟栖息地面积开展了建模分析。计划实施的湿地恢复措施在2065年前大体抵消了气候、城市化与供水管理变化对栖息地面积带来的不利影响，但在此之后，除一种情景外，其余所有情景的恢复效果均未能延续此前的补偿作用。由气候模型预测的栖息地缩减情况，相较于近期历史气候条件下更为频繁且程度更严重，且其影响规模随时间推移不断扩大。2065年后，所有包含暖干极端气候情景的水鸟栖息地面积，在多数年份均较“现有”景观场景减少15%以上。水鸟栖息地缩减幅度最大的情景，是结合了暖干气候与影响水鸟栖息地可用水资源优先级及输送的合理供水管理方案的组合情景。本情景建模充分考量了中央谷地景观格局、相关水资源利用与管理以及气候变化的复杂性与不确定性，旨在为水鸟栖息地保护及其他资源管理规划提供科学参考。研究结果表明，有必要进一步加大湿地恢复力度，并增设更多保护与气候变化适应策略，以维持足够的栖息地面积来支撑中央谷地的水鸟种群。本数据集用于支撑以下发表成果：Matchett EL、Fleskes JP（2017）《加利福尼亚中央谷地气候、城市化、水资源管理与湿地恢复对水鸟栖息地的预测影响》，PLoS ONE 12(1): e0169780。doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0169780