Evaluation of Global Wave Probabilities Consistent with Official Forecasts Weather and Forecasting

The U.S. Navy is keenly interested in analyses and predictions of waves at sea due to their effects on important tasks such as shipping, base preparedness, and disaster relief. U.S. Tropical Cyclone (TC) Forecast Centers routinely disseminate wind probabilities consistent with official TC forecasts worldwide, but do not do the same for wave forecasts. These probabilities are especially important at longer leads where TC forecast accuracy diminishes. This work describes global wave probabilities consistent with both the official TC forecasts and their wind probabilities. Real-time runs for 84 TCs between May 2018 and March 2019, with probabilities generated for 12- and 18-ft significant wave heights are used to calculate verification statistics.