Charcoal records of two sediment cores off SW Africa@en

We analyze sedimentary charcoal records to show that the changes in fire regime over the past 21,000 yrs are predictable from changes in regional climates. Analyses of paleo- fire data show that fire increases monotonically with changes in temperature and peaks at intermediate moisture levels, and that temperature is quantitatively the most important driver of changes in biomass burning over the past 21,000 yrs. Given that a similar relationship between climate drivers and fire emerges from analyses of the interannual variability in biomass burning shown by remote-sensing observations of month-by-month burnt area between 1996 and 2008, our results signal a serious cause for concern in the face of continuing global warming.我们通过分析沉积炭屑记录（sedimentary charcoal records），证实了过去21000年间的火灾格局（fire regime）变化可通过区域气候的演变进行预测。针对古火灾数据（paleo-fire data）的分析显示，火灾发生频次随温度变化呈单调递增态势，并在中等湿度条件下达到峰值；量化分析结果表明，温度是过去21000年以来生物质燃烧（biomass burning）变化的最核心驱动因子。鉴于通过对1996至2008年逐月火烧面积（burnt area）的遥感观测（remote-sensing observations）所揭示的生物质燃烧年际变率（interannual variability）的研究，同样得到了气候驱动因子与火灾间的相似关联，本研究结果发出了值得高度警惕的警示，在全球持续变暖的背景下，这一现象亟需关注。