Borrowed Youth: Demographic Change and Multinational Location Advantage — Article and Replication Materials

This article connects demographic renewal with multinational recruitment control and the operating life of committed capital. Its host-choice argument engages resource bundling and global staffing, with explicit conditions for shared recruitment, competition and border disruption. Version 3.65.0 adds a Bayesian decision analysis to the Nitra–Puebla staffing appraisal. Under the existing flat-margin, equal-offer-odds benchmark, choosing Nitra after losing the whole UK route carries an expected loss from choosing the wrong host of EUR0.14–1.00 million. Losing only intakes after year fourteen reduces that expected loss to about EUR2,000–15,000. Nitra retains the higher expected value in these reference comparisons. Appendix K11 derives the decision rule, reports alternative priors and provides two independent integrations of 312 specifications. These are conditional public-information appraisals before capital commitment, not realised JLR losses or evidence about its internal contracts. Existing Bayesian panel estimates, demographic inputs, propositions and eight figures are retained. The article distinguishes the measured population-access specification from the recruitment-control mechanism and explains common tenure through the timing of workforce replacement. No observations or regressions are added. Start with Main_Manuscript_ANONYMOUS.pdf, Online_Appendix_ANONYMOUS.pdf and README.txt. Compilable sources, public inputs, code, figure files and aggregate outputs are supplied. The current replication overlay and nine frozen base archives restore the complete permitted replication. Licensed WRDS rows require subscriber access; queries and reconstruction instructions are supplied. Editor-only cover and title pages are excluded.