Replication Package for "Why Moral Cosmology Fails: Eclipses, Omen Discourse, and Political Power in Imperial China"

<span>This is the
replication package for <i>Why Moral Cosmology Fails: Eclipses, Omen Discourse, and Political Power
in Imperial China</i>, to be published in the <i>Journal of Economic History</i>. This paper examines whether moral cosmology
developed by Confucian scholar-officials functioned as an accountability
mechanism in imperial China. Using an original dataset, we document that solar
eclipses strengthened autocracy, as evidenced by a reduced likelihood of
irregular emperor removal. Although omens like eclipses were theoretically seen
as Heaven’s warnings, in practice, they instead became an instrument serving
those in power. Supporting this interpretation, we find that eclipses increased
the probability of chancellor replacement, enabling emperors to purge dissenters
or exploit factional struggles to shift blame. These findings reveal a
significant gap between omen discourse theory and its political implementation.</span>