Supplement 1. The WinBUGS code.

File List Lessepsian_WinBUGS.txt -- WinBUGS code Description The file "Lessepsian_WinBUGS.txt" contains the code for fitting the Bayesian model. To execute the code, the text must be pasted into a document window in WinBugs. To insert one's own data, replace the original data with the new data, which must include the number of sampling intervals (T), two vectors containing the number of new endemic and introduced species recorded at time t (new_species and new_species_L, respectively) and two vectors containing the cumulative number of endemic and introduced species recorded at time t (SM1 and SR1, respectively). It will probably be necessary to change the values of the initials before the model can run on a different data set. To construct a full model that allows for a linear monotonic trend in u through time, simply remove the # sing from the parameter "beta1" and replace the # signs between the two versions of logit(u[1]) and logit(u[i]). Note, that under the full model it is invalid to estimate z. Note: WinBUGS parameterizes the normal distribution in terms of the precision parameter "tau" which is the reciprocal of the variance parameter.