The Reputational Cost of Military Aggression: Evidence from the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Large-scale military aggression is argued to damage the international image of the aggressor and mobilize global public opinion against it. Previous cross-country research also finds that negative views of the aggressor are usually limited to the government and do not extend to the citizens of the invading country. Our article provides micro-level evidence on attitude change towards Russia as a country, the Russian people, and the Russian government after its invasion of Ukraine. We use data from a survey conducted between the morning of February 21, 2022 (3 days before the Russian invasion of Ukraine) and the night of 28 February 2022 (5 days after the invasion) in the United States to evaluate how the Russian invasion of Ukraine affected attitudes towards the country, its people, and the government. We also conduct a subgroup analysis to explore the magnitude of attitude change across sociodemographic and political subgroups after the invasion. Our findings show fairly significant damage to the image of Russia as a country as well as the Russian government. However, the reputational damage of the Russian people is minimal. The results also suggest that Republican and religious subgroups had the largest attitude change on Russia and the Russian government.学界普遍认为，大规模军事侵略行为会损害侵略国的国际形象，并引发全球舆论对其的抵制。既往跨国研究亦显示，大众对侵略国的负面观感通常仅局限于该国政府层面，并不会波及侵略国的普通民众。本研究针对俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后，全球民众对俄罗斯国家整体、俄罗斯民众以及俄罗斯政府的态度转变提供了微观层面的实证证据。本研究依托2022年2月21日晨（乌克兰遭遇俄罗斯军事侵略前3日）至2022年2月28日夜（侵略爆发后5日）期间在美国开展的民调数据，评估俄乌军事侵略事件对受访者关于俄罗斯国家、民众及政府的态度产生的影响。此外，本研究还开展了亚组分析，以探究侵略事件后不同社会人口学特征与政治倾向群体的态度变化幅度。研究结果显示，俄罗斯国家整体以及俄罗斯政府的国际形象均遭受了较为显著的负面影响；但俄罗斯民众的声誉受损程度则相对微弱。研究结果同时表明，美国共和党选民与宗教信仰群体对俄罗斯及俄政府的态度变化幅度最为显著。