Replication Data for: Extant Commitment, Risk, and UN Peacekeeping Authorization

Do aspects of current UN peacekeeping operations affect the willingness of that body to authorize new operations? Our theoretical arguments center on the capacity and costs of the organization – specifically the committed resources and risks associated with ongoing operations – with the assumption that greater existing commitments and perceived risks lessen the likelihood that the UN will create new operations. Related to the concern with risk, does successful diplomacy that produces a peace agreement in the conflict at hand lessen expected costs and therefore make authorizing new peacekeeping operations more attractive? To answer these questions, we examine UN peacekeeping authorization decisions over the period 1989-2016. Our results demonstrate that UN decisions to authorize new peacekeeping missions are connected to two forms of conflict management. First, successful attempts at peacemaking (evidence by peace agreements) increased the likelihood that a UN peacekeeping operation would be sent to that conflict in the aftermath of the agreement. We also demonstrate that the number of ongoing UN peacekeeping efforts are a strong negative predictor of whether or not the UN authorizes new missions. Theoretically, the concepts of perceived carrying capacity and risk, derived from other conflict management efforts, provided the explanatory bases for these effects.

当前联合国（UN）维和行动的相关维度，是否会影响该机构授权开展新维和行动的意愿？本研究的理论论证围绕该组织的承载能力与行动成本展开——具体而言，即当前行动所涉及的已承诺资源与相关风险——并提出如下假设：既有的承诺越多、感知到的风险越高，联合国开展新维和行动的可能性就越低。与风险考量相关的是，在当前冲突中促成和平协议的成功外交，是否会降低预期成本，进而令授权开展新维和行动更具吸引力？为解答上述问题，我们考察了1989年至2016年间联合国维和行动的授权决策。研究结果表明，联合国授权开展新维和任务的决策，与两类冲突管理举措存在关联。其一，成功的和平调解尝试（以和平协议为佐证），会提升联合国在协议达成后向该冲突地区部署维和行动的可能性。此外，我们的研究还证明，当前正在开展的联合国维和行动数量，是联合国是否授权新任务的强有力负向预测因子。从理论层面而言，源自其他冲突管理实践的感知承载能力与风险概念，为上述效应提供了解释基础。