Has the New Aid for Trade Agenda been Export Effective? Evidence on the Impact of US AfT Allocations 1999-2008

After a decade of Aid for Trade (AfT) allocations, we can now begin to assess whether this new development strategy has been effective. Focusing on the short-term goal of export growth, we examine whether AfT from the US government promoted exports within recipient national economies over the period 1999–2008. Our results suggest that a $1 dollar increase in total US AfT has been associated with about a $69 increase in recipient exports 2 years later. We also show that the export effect of US AfT has not been confined to the US market and is driven primarily by exports to the rest of the world. In addition, we show that US AfT has been effective in reaching more needy countries as the substantive effect of US aid for trade has been larger in lesser-developed, landlocked, and more distant recipient countries.在援外贸易援助（Aid for Trade, AfT）拨款实施十年后，我们现已能够着手评估这一新型发展战略是否取得了实效。本研究以出口增长这一短期目标为聚焦点，考察1999年至2008年间美国政府提供的援外贸易援助是否推动了受援国国内的出口增长。研究结果显示，美国援外贸易援助总规模每增加1美元，受援国的出口额会在两年后增长约69美元。此外我们还发现，美国援外贸易援助的出口促进效应并未局限于美国本土市场，其驱动作用主要来源于受援国对世界其他地区的出口。进一步分析表明，美国援外贸易援助对更亟需援助的国家成效更为显著，这是由于该援助在欠发达、内陆且地理位置更为偏远的受援国中具备更强的实际效应。