Subjective income risk and precautionary saving

While economists agree that prudent households save to hedge subjective risk in income, they still debate on the relevance of precautionary saving. The main problem in estimating this saving motive is the lack of micro data on perceived income risk, preferences, trade opportunities, and its potential bias effects. In the present work we overcome this problem exploiting a wave of the Italian Survey on Household Income and Wealth that contains unique information on households': perceived income risk, risk aversion, patience, saving attitudes, liquidity and credit constraints. Results robustly indicate that precautionary saving is significant but low: an average of 4-6\% of households' total net wealth. Data richness is used to produce a detailed analysis on the omission-variable bias discussed in earlier studies; both highlighting differences in signs and significance. Finally, we extend our analysis to group heterogeneity, with regard to precautionary saving of business owners and senior citizens.

Keywords. Precautionary saving; wealth accumulation; income risk; preferences; liquidity constraints; credit constraints.

JEL Classification Numbers. C210; D120; D910.

尽管经济学家普遍认为，审慎家庭会通过储蓄对冲主观感知的收入风险，但学界对于预防性储蓄的现实相关性仍存在争议。
在估算此类储蓄动机的过程中，核心难题在于缺乏覆盖感知收入风险、家庭偏好、交易机会及其潜在偏误影响的微观数据。
本研究借助某一轮次的《意大利家庭收入与财富调查》（Italian Survey on Household Income and Wealth）破解了这一难题，该调查包含了家庭层面的感知收入风险、风险厌恶程度、耐心程度、储蓄态度、流动性约束与信贷约束等独有信息。
稳健的实证结果表明，预防性储蓄确实存在但规模有限：平均约占家庭总净财富的4%至6%。
依托本次研究的数据优势，本文对既往研究中讨论的遗漏变量偏误展开了细致分析，同时揭示了偏误在符号与显著性层面的差异。
最后，本文还针对企业主与老年群体的预防性储蓄行为拓展了群体异质性分析。

关键词：预防性储蓄；财富积累；收入风险；偏好；流动性约束；信贷约束。

JEL分类号：C210；D120；D910。