Land Owner Decisions and Consequences in North Central Massachusetts 1950-2009

Landscapes dominated by private ownership experience change as properties change hands, change monetary value, undergo land use conversion, become isolated or lose road access, or are divided and hence smaller in size. The future ecological integrity, connectivity, and function of landscapes dominated by private ownership depend on the speed or frequency with which decisions are made, the kinds of decisions, and their outcomes or consequences. One way to study this human behavior on land is through attitudinal surveys of owners investigating their motivations, beliefs, and values. Another is to pose hypothetical circumstances and query owners about potential response or reactions. Another involves the study of social networks around owners, and determining the extent to which information flows between owners and may influence decisions. We proposed instead to study or monitor decisions made and resulting circumstances, and to establish a long-term framework or network of points at which land owner decisions will be sampled over time. In essence, we proposed to study behavior enacted on the landscape, rather than individual people. Data derived from this network and sampling will inform land use scenario modeling efforts to forecast the future trajectory of the landscape, its rate of change, and subsequent potential provision of ecosystem services. The network was established to monitor change over time in the future, but an important aspect was to establish the baseline and antecedent circumstances that led to existing conditions. A classic historic study following specific decision-making over time on land ownership over generations is told in the Sanderson Farm story at the Harvard Forest: http://www.foresthistory.org/Publications/FHT/FHT1997/SandersonsFarm.pdf Establishment of the baseline and historic circumstances will inform models of future decisions. The summer 2009 project was a proof-of-concept to test the extent to which points could be established and antecedent historic land ownership data could be acquired. Subsequent future maintenance of the network and monitoring activity will enable test or validate the models, and improve forecasting of future scenarios. The network of sample points will also provide a structure to survey landowner attitudes, as their landscapes or surroundings evolve. This REU (Research Experience for Undergraduates) project involved one undergraduate summer intern and established a test network of 100 randomly located points in the North Quabbin area surrounding the Harvard Forest. All points were located on privately owned forest. This involved knowledge and application of GIS and spatial data, as well as study of deed and land transaction records, harvest permits, and census data. The REU student located the sample points on maps in a GIS, and studied ownership parcel and tax data to determine current ownership, and then tracked real estate transactions back through time via county tax and land transfer records, assembling a provenance and sequential history of land ownership for each point, as well as ancillary data (e.g., date of decision, result of decision). By using the Registry of Deeds for transaction and spatial data, and tracking the ownership of land over time, we studied patterns or trends in the types of decisions land owners typically make about their land (e.g., changing ownership, acreage, and price). We compiled ownership provenance for 60 randomly selected points, in so doing developing an excellent estimate of the time required to further develop the network. We also determined type of ownership (e.g., single owner, joint/spousal, larger family) and the extent to which people own adjacent parcels. Results: When landscapes are dominated by private ownerships, the frequency and consequences of their decisions have ecosystem implications. In this pilot study in north central Massachusetts, we estimated on average landowners are making a decision (i.e., timber harvest, convey an easement, sell land) every 12 years. Average tenure of ownership is 18 years. Ownerships are comprised of multiple, adjacent parcels, and the resulting mean ownership size was 145 acres. Roughly one third of properties were owned by a single individual decision-maker, with the balance being owned by spousal couples, families, businesses, or others. This blend of multiple owners for properties complicates the decision-making process that controls the aggregate future socioecological trajectories of landscapes. Specific results included: 1. Larger parcels of forested land typically get parcelized less and show more stability, and as parcels get smaller, the amount of decisions made about the land varies more and more. 2. Those owners that own some or any of the adjacent parcels typically own larger sized parcels, usually above 50 acres. 3. Most decisions are made at the ownership level, composed of multiple parcels, instead of a single parcel. 4. The rate of decision-making for businesses is considerably slower than it is for other types of land-owners. 5. Most owners are multiple people (e.g., families) and only 1/3rd are individuals. 6. The decision to harvest seems to have a relation to parcel size. 7. The harvest and sale-of-land decisions appear unrelated to each other. 8. Most decisions are made at the ownership level, composed of multiple parcels, instead of a single parcel. 9. The rate of decision-making for businesses is considerably slower than it is for other types of land-owners. These results provide an indication of the rate and kind of decisions owners are making, and the result of this decision making on the landscape. This technique provides an interesting methodological contrast to snapshots in time provided by mail surveys for large numbers of owners. This method more clearly shows the dynamics for individual points through time.