Long-term monitoring of the health of Ninglaoo Reef.

We propose a collaborative study between AIMS, CALM and UWA that develops cost effective methods of monitoring the health of coral reef communities at Ningaloo. Our study will use existing methods and develop recent advances in more sophisticated methods to provide current and future insights in the health of keystone communities, including corals, fish and algae.

Firstly, we will use the most commonly used methods of quantifying changes in benthic communities (e.g. coral, algae) from video footage, and fish communities using visual censuses. These methods will be applied to determine the levels of spatial (number of sites/reefs) and temporal (number of surveys) replication necessary for detecting predetermined changes in community structures, through use of statistical tests such as power analysis. These data will be the basis of a long-term, cost-effective, monitoring program for Ningaloo.

Secondly, we intend to quantify the demographic parameters that underlie the changes in the abundances of adult communities, of which rates of recruitment are among the most important. Rates of recruitment of corals and fish will be quantified at different sites and reefs along Ningaloo, to determine background variation and to identify the likely sink and sources of recruits. Knowledge about which reefs supply and receive most recruits, is vital to an understanding of their resilience and the levels of protection they should be provided.

Thirdly, changes in the size-frequency of key groups of corals and fish will be combined with information about adult abundances and recruitment rates to follow cohorts through time and to infer the effects of significant events on the current and future health of the communities.

本研究由AIMS、CALM与UWA联合发起，旨在开发低成本高效的监测手段，用以评估宁格罗（Ningaloo）珊瑚礁群落的健康状况。本研究将沿用现有监测方法，并结合近年发展的更先进技术，为珊瑚、鱼类与藻类等关键群落（keystone communities）的健康现状与未来趋势提供科学洞察。

首先，本研究将采用当前最通用的方法：通过视频影像量化底栖生物群落（benthic communities，如珊瑚、藻类）的变化，通过目视普查评估鱼类群落的动态。我们将运用功效分析（power analysis）等统计检验手段，确定检测群落结构预设变化所需的空间（样地/礁体数量）与时间（调查次数）重复采样强度。所得数据将成为宁格罗长期低成本高效监测计划的核心基础。

其次，本研究将量化支撑成体群落丰度变化的种群动态参数，其中补充率（recruitment）是最为关键的参数之一。我们将在宁格罗沿岸的不同样地与礁体处量化珊瑚与鱼类的补充率，以确定其背景变异水平，并识别出补充种群的潜在源与汇。明确哪些礁体是补充种群的主要供给者与接收者，对于理解群落的恢复力及其应获得的保护等级至关重要。

第三，本研究将结合关键珊瑚类群与鱼类类群的体长频率变化数据，以及成体群落丰度与补充率信息，追踪同龄群（cohorts）的时间动态，并推断重大事件对群落当前及未来健康状况的影响。