The Employment Effects of ICT Investment: Evidence from the U.S. Commuting Zones

This paper estimates changes in ICT investment across Commuting Zones (CZs) in the United States from 2008 to 2019 and uses the Bartik instrumental variable method to assess the impact of ICT investment on local employment. The results indicate that ICT investment has a modest yet significantly positive effect on employment. The employment effects vary by industry and ICT type, with notably stronger positive effects for intellectual property-intensive (software-related) ICT investments. Furthermore, ICT investment has the largest positive employment effects in CZs with greater exposure to non-routine tasks, while in CZs with higher exposure to routine tasks, ICT investment exerts negative employment effects. These findings provide new insights into the employment effects of ICT investment in the United States over the past 15 years.

本文估算了2008年至2019年美国各通勤区（Commuting Zones，CZs）的信息通信技术（Information and Communication Technology，ICT）投资变化，并采用巴特里克工具变量法（Bartik instrumental variable method）评估了ICT投资对本地就业的影响。研究结果显示，ICT投资对就业存在温和却显著的正向影响。就业效应因行业与ICT类型的不同而存在差异，其中知识产权密集型（软件相关）ICT投资的正向就业效应尤为突出。此外，在非常规任务暴露程度更高的通勤区，ICT投资对就业的正向拉动作用最为显著；而在常规任务暴露程度更高的通勤区，ICT投资则会对就业产生负向影响。上述研究结论为过去15年间美国ICT投资的就业效应研究提供了全新的视角。