Conserving Koalas in the 21st Century: Synthesising the Dynamics of Australia’s Koala Populations

We conducted a four-step Delphi expert elicitation procedure. This approach allowed us to address the gaps in knowledge regarding national koala populations with the robustness of collective judgement. The four steps of the Delphi method ask for an upper estimate, a lower estimate, a best guess and a percentage confidence interval. Prior to the commencement of the workshop, the participants were required to complete the first round of the questionnaire. These results were then re-evaluated during the workshop and a second round of elicitation was conducted. The outcome of the two workshops will be a synthesis of the distribution and abundance of koalas, population trends, and a region-specific summary of threats to koalas. Peer-reviewed journal publications will be produced. The information will be used to inform researchers, managers and decision-makers to ensure that viable koala populations persist across their natural range.

本研究采用四步法德尔菲（Delphi）专家征询程序。该方法依托集体判断的稳健性，填补了当前关于全国考拉种群的认知空白。德尔菲法的四个步骤分别要求参与者给出上限估计值、下限估计值、最优估计值以及百分比置信区间。在研讨会正式启动前，所有参会人员需完成第一轮问卷调研；随后参会人员在研讨会期间对首轮调研结果进行复评，并开展第二轮专家征询。本次两场研讨会的最终成果将涵盖考拉的分布与种群丰度、种群动态趋势的综合分析，以及针对各区域的考拉生存威胁总结。本研究成果将发表于经过同行评议的学术期刊，旨在为科研人员、管理者与决策者提供信息支持，以保障考拉种群在其自然分布范围内持续存续。