Detection Probability of Red Wood Ants in Friedenweiler, Germany 2015

Estimation of population sizes and species ranges is central to population and conservation biology. It is widely appreciated that imperfect detection of mobile animals must be accounted for when estimating population size from presence-absence data. Sessile organisms also are imperfectly detected, but correction for detection probability in estimating their population sizes is rare. We illustrate challenges of detection probability and population estimation of sessile organisms using censuses of red wood ant (Formica rufa-group) nests as a case study. These ants, widespread in the northern hemisphere, can make large (up to 2m tall), highly visible nests. Using data from a two-day mapping campaign by eight individuals of 147 ant nests spread across sixteen 3600-m2 plots in the Black Forest region of southwest Germany, we developed a Bayesian model for quantifying detection probability of sessile organisms. Detection probabilities by individual observers of red wood ant nests ranged from 0.31 – 0.56, and depended on experience of the observers, size and density of nests, and habitat characteristics. Robust estimation of population density of sessile organisms—even highly apparent ones such as red wood ant nests—requires unbiased estimation of detection probability, just as it does when estimating population density of rare or cryptic species.