Qualitative network model outputs and code: HIMI Patagonian toothfish fishery, stock and ecosystem responses to change

This dataset contains the supplementary data and code accompanying the publication: Ward, D., Hill, N., Melbourne-Thomas, J., Welsford, D., Arangio, R., McNeill, M., Wotherspoon, S., Ziegler, P., Corney, S. (2025) Exploring mechanisms of change in a Southern Ocean fishery with a co-produced network model, ICES Journal of Marine Science. The study aimed to elucidate likely responses of the system to change, and mechanisms by which environmental, ecological or fishery behavioural changes could affect catch rates and toothfish stocks in the Heard and McDonald Islands (HIMI) fishing area. In the study, we co-developed a set of 128 qualitative network models of the Heard and McDonald Islands (HIMI) Patagonian toothfish fishery–stock–ecosystem interactions system with knowledge holders from industry and science. These different model versions capture different possible configurations of interactions for which the sign of the effects (positive or negative) are unknown. For each model versions, we simulated 10,000 quantitative instances of the qualitative model. We analysed these model outputs to understand 1) mean qualitative responses of system components (nodes) in 8 test scenarios (press increases in environmental, fishery, or ecosystem nodes); 2) how ‘unknown’ effect signs affected qualitative responses of key nodes to change; and 3) relationships between responses and the strength of effects originating from nodes being perturbed. Please refer to Ward et al. (2025) for more detailed description of the methodology and findings, and the README file for description of data and code contained in this repository.

本数据集包含随下述学术出版物配套发布的补充数据与代码：Ward, D.、Hill, N.、Melbourne-Thomas, J.、Welsford, D.、Arangio, R.、McNeill, M.、Wotherspoon, S.、Ziegler, P.、Corney, S.（2025）《基于协同构建网络模型探究南大洋渔场变化机制》，发表于《ICES Journal of Marine Science》。本研究旨在阐明该系统对变化的潜在响应，以及环境、生态或渔业行为变化如何影响赫德岛和麦克唐纳群岛（Heard and McDonald Islands, HIMI）捕捞区域的渔获率与犬牙南极鱼种群。研究期间，我们联合产业界与科研界的知识持有者，共同构建了128套针对赫德岛和麦克唐纳群岛（HIMI）巴塔哥尼亚犬牙南极鱼渔业-种群-生态系统互作体系的定性网络模型。这些不同的模型版本涵盖了多种可能的互作配置，其中各效应的正负方向尚未明确。针对每个模型版本，我们分别生成了10000个该定性模型的定量实例。我们对模型输出开展分析，以实现三大研究目标：1）8种测试情景下系统组分（节点）的平均定性响应（情景设置为对环境、渔业或生态系统节点施加持续增长扰动）；2）“未知”效应方向如何影响关键节点对变化的定性响应；3）系统响应与受扰动节点产生的效应强度之间的关联。如需了解研究方法与结果的详细阐释，请参阅Ward等人（2025年）的论文；若需了解本仓库内数据与代码的具体说明，请查阅README文件。