Employing Rhetoric to Improve Probabilistic Forecast Communication

The proposed research is to identify stakeholder risk thresholds to improve the visualization of PHI forecasts. Researchers will test visualizations of PHI for a wide range of weather hazards by surveying NWS forecast offices core partners and social-media users. We will create and evaluate visualizations of probabilistic forecasts using a range of methods to determine where risk-assessment thresholds lie and use them to create tools NWS staff throughout the U.S. can employ to optimize PHI communication with their own user groups. Central to this project is the use of rhetoric, a subdiscipline of communication studies that models collective decision making in the face of rampant uncertainty. Project outcomes include: (1) Provide operational meteorologists with a best practices guide and adaptable templates for visual and verbal communication techniques of PHI; (2) Supply a simple rhetorical toolkit for recovering risk thresholds from stakeholder surveys to allow more NWS offices to engineer just-in-time communication solutions for their partners; (3) Create educational videos about PHI forecasting to enrich and strengthen NWS–stakeholder communication. The proposed multifaceted approach has a high probability of revolutionizing weather forecast communication and enhancing IDSS, especially during high impact, costly, and deadly weather events. Award amount: $485,382.00 Grant no. NA21OAR4590208