Phylogeny, ancestors, and anagenesis in the hominin fossil record

Probabilistic approaches to phylogenetic inference have recently gained traction in paleontological studies. Because they directly model processes of evolutionary change, probabilistic methods facilitate a deeper assessment of variability in evolutionary patterns by weighing evidence for competing models. Although phylogenetic methods used in paleontological studies have generally assumed that evolution proceeds by splitting cladogenesis, extensions to previous models help explore the potential for morphological and temporal data to provide differential support for contrasting modes of evolutionary divergence. Recent methodological developments have integrated ancestral relationships into probabilistic phylogenetic methods. These new approaches rely on parameter-rich models and sophisticated inferential methods, potentially obscuring the respective contributions of data and models. In this study, we describe a simple likelihoodist approach that combines probabilistic models of morpholog...