Predicting the potential distribution of Arisaema heterophyllum in China under current and future climate change based on ArcGIS and MaxEnt model

Climate change significantly affects the distribution of medicinal plants, necessitating accurate models to predict future shifts in their habitats. This study employed the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS to predict the current and future distribution of Arisaema heterophyllum, a valuable perennial herb in traditional Chinese medicine, under two future climate scenarios: SSP 245 and SSP 585. Using 142 valid species occurrence records and critical environmental variables, we identified October precipitation, March precipitation, elevation and September precipitation as the major determinants of A. heterophyllum habitat suitability. The model demonstrated high predictive accuracy, with an average Area Under the Curve (AUC) value of 0.951, indicating the reliability of our findings. These results suggest a potential decrease in the total suitable habitat area for A. heterophyllum, with a noticeable shift toward higher altitudes and latitudes in response to climate change. This study highlighted the urgency of incorporating climate change projections into A. heterophyllum conservation strategies to mitigate the risk of resource depletion. Furthermore, our approach offers a robust framework for assessing the impacts of climate change on other medicinal plants, contributing valuable insights into their future conservation and sustainable use.