Agricultural commodities: March quarter 2016

Overview \r\n This report contains ABARES' latest outlook to 2020-21 for Australia's major agricultural commodities. In addition, this publication includes articles titled: • Farm performance: broadacre and dairy farms, 2013-14 to 2015-16 \r\n• Productivity in Australian broadacre and dairy industries \r\n• Disaggregating farm performance statistics by size. \r\n A limited number of printed copies will be available by contacting [e-mail] \r\n\r\nKey Issues \r\n Commodity outlook \r\n• The gross value of farm production is forecast to increase by 2.7 per cent to around $60.3 billion in 2016-17, following a forecast increase of 9.3 per cent to $58.7 billion in 2015-16. \r\n• The gross value of livestock production is forecast to increase by around 1.8 per cent to $30.8 billion in 2016-17, following a forecast increase of 13.3 per cent in 2015-16. The gross value of crop production is forecast to increase by 3.7 per cent to $29.5 billion in 2016-17, after a forecast increase of 5.3 per cent in 2015-16. \r\n• In 2020-21, the gross value of farm production is projected to be $58.5 billion (in 2015-16 dollars), 11 per cent higher than the average of $52.6 billion over the five years to 2014-15 in real terms. The gross value of crop production is projected to be $28.0 billion and the gross value of livestock production is projected to reach $30.4 billion (all in 2015-16 dollars). \r\n• Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to be around $45.0 billion in 2016-17, slightly lower than the forecast $45.2 billion in 2015-16. \r\n• The agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to rise in 2016-17 are wool (up 7 per cent), dairy products (4 per cent), sugar (7 per cent), live feeder/slaughter cattle (9 per cent), cotton (22 per cent) and canola (13 per cent). \r\n• Forecast increases in 2016-17 are expected to be more than offset by expected declines in export earnings for beef and veal (down 4 per cent), wheat (1 per cent), lamb (3 per cent) and mutton (11 per cent). \r\n• In 2020-21 the value of farm exports is projected to be around $45.3 billion (in 2015-16 dollars), 11 per cent higher than the average of $40.7 billion over the five years to 2014-15 in real terms. \r\n• Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to stay at around $1.7 billion in 2016-17, after increasing by a forecast 15.6 per cent in 2015-16. \r\n\r\n Economic assumptions underlying the commodity outlook \r\n• World economic activity is forecast to increase by 3.2 per cent in 2016 and 3.4 per cent in 2017. World economic growth is expected to rise further to around 3.7 per cent in 2018 and 2019 before falling to 3.5 per cent in 2020 and 2021. \r\n• In Australia, economic growth is assumed to average 2.5 per cent in 2015-16, and 2.8 per cent in 2016-17. Toward 2020-21, economic growth is assumed to average around 2.7 per cent. \r\n• The Australian dollar is assumed to average around US71 cents in both 2015-16 and 2016-17. It is assumed to gradually appreciate over the medium term, reaching US74 cents towards 2020-21. \r\n

### 概览
本报告收录澳大利亚农业与资源经济科学局（ABARES）针对澳大利亚主要农业大宗商品截至2020-21财年的最新展望内容。此外，本出版物还包含以下专题文章：
• 农场经营状况：2013-14至2015-16财年的大田农业与乳牛业
• 澳大利亚大田农业与乳牛业生产率
• 按规模细分的农场经营统计数据

感兴趣的读者可通过邮箱[e-mail]申领限量印刷版纸质副本。

### 核心议题
#### 大宗商品展望
• 2015-16财年农业生产总值预计增长9.3%至587亿澳元，2016-17财年该数值预计再增长2.7%，达到约603亿澳元。
• 畜牧业生产总值预计在2015-16财年增长13.3%后，于2016-17财年增长约1.8%，达到308亿澳元；种植业生产总值则在2015-16财年增长5.3%后，于2016-17财年增长3.7%，达到295亿澳元。
• 按2015-16财年不变价计算，2020-21财年农业生产总值预计达585亿澳元，较2014-15财年为止的五年平均水平（526亿澳元）实际增长11%。其中种植业生产总值预计为280亿澳元，畜牧业生产总值预计达304亿澳元（均按2015-16财年不变价计算）。
• 2016-17财年农业大宗商品出口收入预计约为450亿澳元，略低于2015-16财年预计的452亿澳元。
• 2016-17财年出口收入预计增长的农业大宗商品包括：羊毛（增长7%）、乳制品（增长4%）、食糖（增长7%）、活体育肥/屠宰牛（增长9%）、棉花（增长22%）及油菜籽（增长13%）。
• 2016-17财年上述品类的出口增长预计将被以下品类的收入下滑部分抵消：牛肉及小牛肉（下滑4%）、小麦（下滑1%）、羔羊肉（下滑3%）及羊肉（下滑11%）。
• 按2015-16财年不变价计算，2020-21财年农业出口收入预计约为453亿澳元，较2014-15财年为止的五年平均水平（407亿澳元）实际增长11%。
• 水产品出口收入在2015-16财年预计增长15.6%后，2016-17财年预计维持在约17亿澳元。

### 大宗商品展望所依托的经济假设
• 全球经济活动预计2016年增长3.2%，2017年增长3.4%；预计全球经济增速将进一步提升至2018-2019年的约3.7%，随后于2020-2021年回落至3.5%。
• 澳大利亚国内经济增速预计2015-16财年平均为2.5%，2016-17财年平均为2.8%；到2020-21财年，经济增速预计平均维持在约2.7%。
• 2015-16财年及2016-17财年澳元汇率预计平均维持在71美分；中期来看澳元将逐步升值，到2020-21财年预计升至74美分。