Replication Data and Code for “Bayesian-Bootstrap Sensitivity Analysis for Partially Identified Treatment Effects: Computation and Experimental Benchmarking”

This replication package accompanies the study “Bayesian-Bootstrap Sensitivity Analysis for Partially Identified Treatment Effects: Computation and Experimental Benchmarking.” The study develops a computational Bayesian procedure for evaluating treatment-effect uncertainty when conditional exchangeability may fail. The method combines cross-fitted propensity-score estimation, Bayesian-bootstrap posterior simulation, a normalized odds-weight sensitivity model, and an exact threshold algorithm for calculating the endpoints of partially identified treatment-effect intervals. The empirical application evaluates the effect of participation in the National Supported Work Demonstration on real earnings in 1978. The analysis combines treated NSW participants with nonexperimental comparison observations from the Current Population Survey and Panel Study of Income Dynamics. The randomized NSW comparison group provides an external experimental benchmark. The package reproduces the experimental benchmark, descriptive statistics, overlap and covariate-balance diagnostics, effective sample sizes, Bayesian posterior sensitivity intervals, robustness comparisons, Monte Carlo simulations, tables, and figure reported in the manuscript. The original NSW, CPS, and PSID data are publicly distributed through the National Bureau of Economic Research data page associated with Dehejia and Wahba’s studies. Because the source page specifies attributable non-commercial use, the raw data are not redistributed in this repository. The README provides the source link, required citations, variable definitions, and instructions for obtaining and preparing the original files.本复现包配套于题为《针对部分识别处理效应的贝叶斯自助法敏感性分析：计算方法与实验基准》的研究。 本研究开发了一种计算性贝叶斯方法，用于在条件可交换性（conditional exchangeability）可能不成立时评估处理效应的不确定性。该方法结合了交叉拟合倾向得分估计、贝叶斯自助法后验模拟、标准化胜率加权敏感性模型，以及用于计算部分识别处理效应区间端点的精确阈值算法。 本实证应用评估了1978年参与国家支持工作示范项目（National Supported Work Demonstration, NSW）对实际收入的影响。本分析将接受干预的NSW参与者样本，与取自当前人口调查（Current Population Survey, CPS）及收入动态追踪调查（Panel Study of Income Dynamics, PSID）的非实验对照观测样本相结合。随机化的NSW对照组可作为外部实验基准。 本复现包可复现论文中报告的实验基准、描述性统计量、重叠性与协变量平衡性诊断、有效样本量、贝叶斯后验敏感性区间、稳健性对比、蒙特卡洛模拟、表格与图形。 原始NSW、CPS及PSID数据可通过与Dehejia与Wahba的研究相关联的国家经济研究局（National Bureau of Economic Research, NBER）数据页面公开获取。由于源页面指定了需标注来源的非商业使用条款，本仓库未重新分发原始数据。README文件提供了源链接、所需引用文献、变量定义，以及获取与预处理原始文件的操作指南。