The Relationship between Employee Turnover and Firm Performance: An Analysis of Major League Baseball from 2002-2016

Does turnover improve performance by allowing firms and employees to optimally match, as outlined by job matching theory? On the other hand, could turnover harm productivity by disrupting team dynamics, as outlined by the Firm Specific Human Capital Model (FSHCM)? I attempt to answer these questions through an analysis of Major League Baseball. For exploring the general relationship between turnover and performance, I regress team turnover rates against their winning percentage using both OLS and quadratic models. For specific theories, I analyze whether positional turnover, inter-league turnover, or the interaction between turnover and ballpark characteristics affect team performance using OLS regression. I attempt to pinpoint precisely how job matching theory and FSHCM could be operating in baseball by analyzing these secondary explanatory variables. I find no evidence to suggest that turnover has a significant effect on team performance over a full season. Rather, roster quality and past winning percentage appear to be better indicators of future winning percentage. However, when looking at the effect of turnover over only half the season, it appears that the best teams from the previous season benefit and the worst teams from the previous season are harmed. I attribute this difference to the ability of better teams to attract better players during the off-season.

人员流动是否如工作匹配理论所述，通过促成球队与球员实现最优匹配来提升赛事表现？另一方面，人员流动是否会如企业专用性人力资本模型（Firm Specific Human Capital Model，FSHCM）所述，通过破坏团队协作氛围损害竞技表现？本研究以美国职业棒球大联盟（Major League Baseball）为研究对象，尝试解答上述两个问题。为探究人员流动与赛事表现的一般性关联，本研究分别采用普通最小二乘法（Ordinary Least Squares，OLS）与二次模型，将球队人员流动率对球队胜率进行回归分析。针对特定理论的验证，本研究通过普通最小二乘回归，分析位置人员流动、跨联盟人员流动，以及人员流动与球场特征的交互项是否会对球队竞技表现产生影响。本研究通过分析上述次级解释变量，尝试精准厘清工作匹配理论与企业专用性人力资本模型在棒球赛事中的作用机制。研究结果显示，在完整赛季中，并无证据表明人员流动对球队竞技表现存在显著影响。相较而言，球员阵容质量与过往赛季胜率，似乎是预测球队未来胜率的更优指标。但仅分析半赛季的人员流动影响时，则呈现出明显差异：上赛季的顶尖球队会因人员流动获益，而上赛季的垫底球队则会因此受损。本研究将这一差异归因于：顶尖球队在休赛期具备更强的优质球员招揽能力。