Replication Data for: Concession Stands: How Mining Investments Incite Protest in Africa

Foreign investment in Africa's mineral resources has increased dramatically. This paper addresses three questions raised by this trend: do commercial mining investments increase the likelihood of social or armed conflict? If so, when are these disputes most prevalent? And, finally, what mechanisms help explain these conflicts? I show, first, that mining has contrasting effects on social and armed conflict: while the probability of protests or riots increases (roughly doubling) after mining starts, there is no increase in rebel activity. Second, I show that the probability of social conflict rises with plausibly exogenous increases in world commodity prices. Finally, I compile additional geo-spatial and survey data to explore potential mechanisms, including reporting bias, environmental harm, in-migration, inequality, and governance. Finding little evidence consistent with these accounts, I develop an explanation related to incomplete information—a common cause of conflict in industrial and international relations. This mechanism rationalizes why mining induces protest, why these conflicts are exacerbated by rising prices, and why transparency dampens the relationship between prices and protest.非洲矿产资源领域的外国投资已出现显著增长。本文针对这一趋势引发的三个核心问题展开研究：商业采矿投资是否会提升社会冲突或武装冲突的发生概率？若答案为是，那么此类冲突何时最为频发？最后，哪些机制可以解释此类冲突的成因？ 首先，研究发现采矿活动对社会冲突与武装冲突存在截然不同的影响：采矿启动后，抗议或骚乱的发生概率出现上升（增幅约达一倍），但叛乱活动的发生率并未出现增长。 其次，本文证实，社会冲突的发生概率会随全球大宗商品价格的拟外生上涨而升高。 最后，本文通过整合额外的地理空间与调研数据，对可能的冲突机制展开探索，涵盖报告偏差、环境损害、人口迁入、收入不平等以及治理水平等维度。在未发现与上述机制相符的证据后，本文提出了一则与信息不完备相关的解释——信息不完备是工业领域与国际关系中引发冲突的常见诱因。 该机制可以合理解释为何采矿活动会引发抗议、为何价格上涨会加剧此类冲突，以及为何透明度能够削弱价格与抗议活动之间的关联。