Expert elicitation spreadsheet from Accounting for direct and indirect cumulative effects of anthropogenic pressures on salmon- and herring-linked land and ocean ecosystems

Salmon and herring support both land and ocean predators and are critical to ecosystem resilience. Their linkages across land and sea realms make them highly susceptible to human activities, which can have flow-on effects up the food web. We quantify and compare the potential cumulative effects of human-driven pressures on interdependent species in salmon- and herring-linked ecosystems of western Canada using a risk assessment methodology. Adding indirect risks resulted in 68% greater total risks for land species than for direct risk alone, versus 15% for marine species. Inclusion of climate change pressures resulted in the greatest change in risk for low trophic marine species and habitats (greater than 25% increase). Forestry-related pressures accounted for the highest risk to all species and projected management of these pressures resulted in a total reduction of risk across all ecosystem components that was greater than 14% greater than management of fisheries pressures. Ignoring land food web linkages and pressures resulted in missing greater than 40% of the total cumulative risk for salmon and herring. This simple framework can be used to evaluate potential risk of existing human uses and future change to inform immediate management of linked land-sea ecosystems and help species avoid the ‘death by a thousand cuts'.This article is part of the theme issue ‘Nurturing resilient marine ecosystems’ compiled and edited by Daniela Schmidt and Tayanah O'.