Demand-side solutions in the US building sector could achieve deep emissions reductions and avoid over $100 billion in power sector costs

Buildings are energy-intensive and a primary source of US end-use sector carbon emissions. Although building emissions today are 25% below their 2005 peak, far deeper reductions are needed to reach the US 2050 net-zero emissions goal. However, plausible decarbonization pathways that consider both buildings and their interactions with the power grid remain poorly understood. Here, we couple detailed modeling of building energy use and the grid to quantify building decarbonization potential and associated grid impacts. We find up to a 91% reduction in building CO2 emissions from 2005 levels by 2050 using a portfolio of building efficiency, demand flexibility, and electrification measures alongside rapid grid decarbonization. Building efficiency and flexibility could generate up to $107 billion in annual power system cost savings by 2050, offsetting over a third of the incremental cost of full grid decarbonization. Our results underscore multiple benefits of demand-side solutions for deep decarbonization of US buildings.

Demand-side measure deployment is assessed with the Scout model (https://scout-bto.readthedocs.io/en/latest/) relative to the EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2021 Reference Case forecast (https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/archive/aeo21/), which includes projections for both new and existing building stock and largely carries forward historical trends in building technology adoption and energy consumption. Annual electricity emissions factors and hourly power system costs are projected by the GridSIM model (https://www.brattle.com/practices/electricity-wholesale-markets-planning/electricity-market-modeling/gridsim/) under different grid decarbonization scenarios. These projections are multiplied by Scout projections of annual building electricity demand and hourly system load impacts through 2050 to assess electricity CO2 emissions and power system cost reductions across the full measure portfolio. Measure installed cost data from Scout are used to estimate the total incremental costs of deploying the measure portfolio. Full-portfolio reductions in CO2 emissions from on-site combustion of fossil fuels are assessed by coupling Scout projections of annual building fossil fuel demand through 2050 with EIA fossil fuel emissions intensities.

Files in this record:

- "ONE-EARTH-D-22-00509 Model Runs.xlsx" (detailed instructions on how to reproduce Scout model results)
- "ONE-EARTH-D-22-00509 Figure Data.xlsx" (data for all key paper figures)
- "ONE-EARTH-D-22-00509 Table Data.xlsx" (all paper Table data)
- "Measure_Sets.zip" (all Scout measures to run analysis as instructed in "ONE-EARTH-D-22-00509 Model Runs.xlsx")
- "Raw_Results.zip" (all raw Scout results, GridSIM hourly cost and emissions data)
- "Postprocess_Data.zip" (AEO/GridSIM Reference Case totals, electricity emissions intensity ratios)

建筑物属于能源密集型设施，亦是美国终端用能领域碳排放的核心来源。当前建筑碳排放较2005年峰值下降25%，但要达成美国2050年净零排放目标，仍需实现更大幅度的减排。然而，兼顾建筑自身及其与电网交互关系的可行脱碳路径，目前仍未得到充分研究。本研究构建建筑能源使用精细化建模与电网建模的耦合框架，以量化建筑脱碳潜力及相关电网影响。研究结果显示，若采用建筑能效提升、需求侧灵活性改造、电气化措施组合，并同步快速推进电网脱碳，到2050年建筑二氧化碳排放量可较2005年水平降低最高达91%。到2050年，建筑能效提升与灵活性改造措施可实现每年最高1070亿美元的电力系统成本节约，可抵消全面电网脱碳所需增量成本的三分之一以上。本研究结果凸显了需求侧解决方案对美国建筑深度脱碳的多重价值。

本研究采用Scout模型（Scout model，https://scout-bto.readthedocs.io/en/latest/）开展需求侧措施部署评估，并以美国能源信息署（Energy Information Administration, EIA）《2021年年度能源展望》基准情景预测（https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/archive/aeo21/）为参照基准。该基准情景涵盖新建与既有建筑存量的预测，基本延续了建筑技术采用与能源消费的历史发展趋势。GridSIM模型（GridSIM model，https://www.brattle.com/practices/electricity-wholesale-markets-planning/electricity-market-modeling/gridsim/）会针对不同电网脱碳情景，预测年度电力碳排放因子与小时级电力系统运行成本。将上述预测结果与Scout模型对2050年前的年度建筑电力需求及小时级系统负荷影响的预测结果相乘，即可评估全措施组合下的电力二氧化碳减排量与电力系统成本节约幅度。本研究同时利用Scout模型中的措施安装成本数据，估算部署全措施组合所需的总增量成本。通过将Scout模型对2050年前的年度建筑化石燃料需求预测，与EIA的化石燃料排放强度数据相耦合，可评估全措施组合下建筑现场化石燃料燃烧产生的二氧化碳减排量。

本数据集包含以下文件：
- "ONE-EARTH-D-22-00509 Model Runs.xlsx"（复现Scout模型结果的详细操作指南）
- "ONE-EARTH-D-22-00509 Figure Data.xlsx"（论文所有关键图表的原始数据）
- "ONE-EARTH-D-22-00509 Table Data.xlsx"（论文所有表格的原始数据）
- "Measure_Sets.zip"（可按照"ONE-EARTH-D-22-00509 Model Runs.xlsx"中的指示运行分析所需的全部Scout分析措施集）
- "Raw_Results.zip"（全部Scout原始结果、GridSIM小时级成本与排放数据）
- "Postprocess_Data.zip"（AEO/GridSIM基准情景汇总数据、电力排放强度比率）