Maps (pdf) and raster images (tif) of predicted rural land cover suitability under current (2010) conditions and future climate scenarios

This study projects land cover probabilities under climate change for corn (maize), soybeans, spring and winter wheat, winter wheat-soybean double cropping, cotton, grassland and forest across 16 central U.S. states at a high spatial resolution, while also taking into account the influence of soil characteristics and topography. The scenarios span three oceanic-atmospheric global circulation models, three Representative Concentration Pathways, and three time periods (2040, 2070, 2100). As climate change intensifies, the suitable area for all six crops display large northward shifts. Total suitable area for spring wheat, followed by corn and soybeans, diminish. Suitable area for winter wheat and for winter wheat-soybean double-cropping expand northward, while cotton suitability migrates to new, more northerly, locations. Suitability for forest intensifies in the south while yielding to crops in the north; grassland intensifies in the western Great Plains as crop suitability diminishes. To maintain current broad geographic patterns of land use, large changes in the thermal response of crops such as corn would be required. A transition from corn-soybean to winter wheat-soybean doubling cropping is an alternative adaptation.

本研究以高空间分辨率针对美国中部16个州，预估了气候变化情景下玉米（corn, maize）、大豆、春小麦、冬小麦、冬小麦-大豆复种、棉花、草地与森林的土地覆被概率，同时纳入了土壤特性与地形的影响。本研究所用情景涵盖3种海洋-大气全球环流模型、3种典型浓度路径（Representative Concentration Pathways）以及3个时间节点：2040年、2070年与2100年。随着气候变化加剧，全部6类作物的适宜种植区均呈现显著北移趋势。其中春小麦的总适宜种植面积率先缩减，随后依次为玉米与大豆。冬小麦与冬小麦-大豆复种的适宜种植区则向北扩张，而棉花的适宜种植区则迁移至更靠北的全新区域。森林的适宜性在南部地区有所提升，而在北部则被作物种植挤占；随着作物适宜种植区缩减，美国西部大平原（Great Plains）的草地适宜性则有所增强。若要维持当前土地利用的整体地理格局，需对玉米等作物的热响应特性进行大幅调整。将种植模式从玉米-大豆轮作转为冬小麦-大豆复种，是一种可行的气候适应方案。