Regional economic impact of the Next Generation European Union recovery plan

This paper analyzes the economic impact of the Next Generation Funds package of the European Union (NGEU), focusing on the allocation of NGEU funds across European regions and the impact on rent distribution using new datasets on direct investments and remittances. Employing the input-output framework this work assesses the effects of the pandemic and the implications of NGEU funds, considering two alternative scenarios of sectoral and regional allocation, and a second round of rent distribution. The analysis reveals that the positive effects of the NGEU are largely overshadowed by the negative impacts of pandemic in most regions. Additionally, when considering the final redistributive effect, including interregional capital and remittance flows, the spatial pattern shifts, indicating that despite overall improvements, core regions capture rents from peripheral regions, leading to anti-cohesion outcomes. These results prompt further investigation into the role of NGEU in regional recovery and cohesion, suggesting additional research into rent distribution and the long-term economic impacts.

本文分析了欧盟下一代基金（Next Generation Funds, NGEU）一揽子计划的经济影响，重点聚焦NGEU基金在欧洲各区域的分配格局，并依托直接投资与汇款的全新数据集，探究其对租金分配的作用。本研究采用投入产出分析框架，结合部门与区域分配的两种备选情景以及第二轮租金分配场景，评估了新冠疫情的影响与NGEU基金的政策效应。分析结果显示，在多数区域中，NGEU的积极效应在很大程度上被疫情的负面影响所掩盖。此外，当纳入区域间资本流动与汇款流以考量最终再分配效应时，空间格局将发生转变，这表明尽管整体经济有所改善，但核心区域仍会从边缘区域攫取租金，最终产生反区域凝聚的结果。上述研究结果推动学界进一步探究NGEU在区域复苏与区域凝聚进程中的作用，并提示后续需围绕租金分配与长期经济影响开展更多研究。