DEE - Indicative Australian Urban Development Risk Model (Polygon) 2016-2026

The Indicative Australian Urban Development Risk Model (2019) predicts the risk of urban expansion for the decade 2016-2026, at a 250m cell size. It is based on extrapolating identifiable trends from 2006-2016, stratified within Australia’s 109 Significant Urban Areas and eight Greater Capital City Statistical Areas (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2016). It has been developed, as an experimental dataset, by the Environmental Resources Information Network (ERIN), in the Commonwealth Department of the Environment and Energy, with the intent of aiding assessment of threat exposure for threatened species. Four parameters logically correlated with urban development were identified, assessed and extrapolated as individual risk values. These were then combined with equal weights in an index. Index values for all grid cells were classified into five risk classes and mapped in a spatial model which also integrates Protected Areas (minimal risk) and existing urban areas, for completeness. The model is restricted to Australia’s 109 Significant Urban Areas and eight Greater Capital City Statistical Areas.\n\nThe indicative Australian Urban Development Risk Model is based on an assumption that recent-past trends in urban expansion (i.e the transition from non-urban land use to urban land use) will continue linearly, and that parameters associated with past expansion are valid predictors of future expansion.\n\nThe model is underpinned by a conceptual logic, derived within ERIN, based on known datasets and their reasonable association with patterns of urbanisation. Specifically, ERIN predicts a higher urban development risk for non-urban locations with:\n\n * proximity to existing high urban development areas\n\n * high increasing trend in street address density\n\n * land uses evidently prone to urbanisation and\n\n * attractive geomorphology.\n\nFor more detailed information please read the Department of Energy and Environments [Find Environmental Data](http://www.environment.gov.au/fed/catalog/search/resource/details.page?uuid=%7BDDD08758-CB7C-4BCC-B950-D9DFEB0B8587%7D) site.

《2019年澳大利亚示范性城市发展风险模型》（Indicative Australian Urban Development Risk Model）以250米网格单元（grid cells）为空间分辨率，预测2016-2026年十年间的城市扩张风险。该模型基于2006-2016年的可识别趋势外推构建，分析范围限定于澳大利亚109个重要城市区域（Significant Urban Areas）与8个大首都城市统计区（Greater Capital City Statistical Areas），数据源自澳大利亚统计局（Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2016）。

本数据集作为实验性成果，由澳大利亚联邦环境与能源部下属的环境资源信息网（Environmental Resources Information Network, ERIN）开发，旨在为受威胁物种（threatened species）的威胁暴露风险评估提供支撑。研究团队识别、评估并外推了4项与城市发展具有逻辑相关性的参数，将其作为独立风险值，随后以等权重组合为综合风险指数。所有网格单元的指数值被划分为5个风险等级，并在空间模型（spatial model）中完成可视化映射；为确保分析完整性，该空间模型同步纳入了保护区（Protected Areas，最低风险等级）与现有城市区域。本模型的覆盖范围仅限澳大利亚109个重要城市区域与8个大首都城市统计区。

本示范性城市发展风险模型基于两项核心假设：其一，城市扩张的近期趋势（即非城市土地利用（land use）向城市土地利用（land use）的转型过程）将保持线性延续；其二，与过往城市扩张相关的参数可有效预测未来的扩张态势。

该模型的理论逻辑由环境资源信息网（ERIN）基于公开数据集及其与城市化模式的合理关联推导得出。具体而言，该模型判定以下四类非城市区域的城市发展风险更高：
* 临近现有高强度城市开发区域
* 街道地址密度（street address density）呈显著增长趋势
* 土地利用（land use）类型易发生城市化转型
* 地貌条件具备开发吸引力

如需获取更多详细信息，请访问澳大利亚联邦环境与能源部的[环境数据查询](http://www.environment.gov.au/fed/catalog/search/resource/details.page?uuid=%7BDDD08758-CB7C-4BCC-B950-D9DFEB0B8587%7D)页面。