Data from: Using genetic variation to infer associations with climate in the common frog, Rana temporaria

Recent and historical species' associations with climate can be inferred using molecular markers. This knowledge of population and species-level responses to climatic variables can then be used to predict the potential consequences of ongoing climate change. The aim of this study was to predict responses of Rana temporaria to environmental change in Scotland by inferring historical and contemporary patterns of gene flow in relation to current variation in local thermal conditions. We first inferred colonization patterns within Europe following the last glacial maximum by combining new and previously published mitochondrial DNA sequences. We found that sequences from our Scottish samples were identical to (92%), or clustered with, the common haplotype previously identified from Western Europe. This clade showed very low mitochondrial variation, which did not allow inference of historical colonization routes but did allow interpretation of patterns of current fine-scale population structure without consideration of confounding historical variation. Second, we assessed fine-scale microsatellite-based patterns of genetic variation in relation to current altitudinal temperature gradients. No population structure was found within altitudinal gradients (average FST = 0.02), despite a mean annual temperature difference of 4.5 °C between low- and high-altitude sites. Levels of genetic diversity were considerable and did not vary between sites. The panmictic population structure observed, even along temperature gradients, is a potentially positive sign for R. temporaria persistence in Scotland in the face of a changing climate. This study demonstrates that within taxonomic groups, thought to be at high risk from environmental change, levels of vulnerability can vary, even within species.

借助分子标记（molecular markers），可推断物种在近期及历史时期与气候的关联模式。依托种群与物种级水平对气候变量的响应规律，可进一步预测当前气候变化可能带来的潜在后果。本研究旨在通过解析与当地当前热环境差异相关的历史及当代基因流模式，预测林蛙（Rana temporaria）在苏格兰境内对环境变化的响应情况。

我们首先结合新获得与已发表的线粒体DNA（mitochondrial DNA）序列，重构末次冰盛期后欧洲范围内的物种定殖模式。结果显示，苏格兰样本的序列中有92%与此前在西欧发现的常见单倍型（haplotype）完全一致，或聚类于该单倍型所在的进化枝（clade）。该进化枝的线粒体遗传变异水平极低，虽无法据此推断历史定殖路径，但可在无需考虑混杂历史变异的前提下，解析当前精细尺度的种群结构模式。

其次，我们基于微卫星（microsatellite）标记，评估了精细尺度的遗传变异模式与当前海拔温度梯度的关联情况。尽管低海拔与高海拔样点的年均温差达4.5℃，但海拔梯度内未检测到显著的种群结构（平均遗传分化系数FST=0.02）。各样点的遗传多样性水平均较高且无显著差异。

即便沿温度梯度，仍观测到随机交配种群（panmictic population）结构，这对于苏格兰林蛙在气候变化背景下的种群存续而言，是一项潜在的积极信号。本研究表明，在被认为面临极高环境变化风险的生物类群中，种群的脆弱性水平甚至在物种内部也存在差异。