The role of Financial Development on Foreign Bank Presence and Inclusive Growth in Africa.

The study examines the moderation role of financial development foreign banks-inclusive growth nexus in 28 African countries. We found a positive effect of foreign bank presence on inclusive growth whereas a developed financial system has the potency to deepen the positive effect. Likewise, there is a direct positive effect of financial development on inclusive growth.

We used 9 variables out of 35 from Asian Development Bank framework for inclusive growth. The 9 used incorporated the percentage of the population using an improved water source, the percentage of the population using at least basic sanitation, percentage getting access to electricity, employment to population ratio, the proportion of the population using improved drinkable water, Human Development Index (HDI) which captured education, health, and income equality, control for corruption, voice and accountability, mobile cellular subscriptions and government effectiveness. While HDI was sourced from Human Development Report Office, control for corruption, voice and accountability, government effectiveness were sourced from World Governance Indicators (WGI). The rest of the variables were collected from World Development Indicators (WDI). We used principal component analysis to create the index, then we used the minimum-maximum approach to normalize the index. Therefore, as the index approaches 1, then it means there is a high inclusive growth and the opposite is true.

A ratio of foreign bank assets to total universal banks' assets was used as a proxy for foreign bank presence, hence a value closer to 1 suggests more foreign banks and vice versa and was sourced from Bank Scope. The financial development index by Sviryzdenka (2016) was used as a proxy for financial development, and we sourced it from IMF, it ranges from 0 (less developed) to 1(highly developed). Inflation, the consumer price index is used as a proxy for inflation and was used to capture the macroeconomic (in) stability of a country. A vector of exports and imports to GDP was used as a measure for trade openness which was sourced from WDI. We sourced bank concentration (%) from the Global Financial database of the World Bank. An average of six indicators of institutional quality was used as a proxy for institutional quality and was sourced from WGI. The index comprises the estimate of; rule of law, government effectiveness, voice and accountability control for corruption, political stability and absence of violence, regulatory quality. The index range from -2.5 (weak institutions) and +2.5 (quality institutions).

We used the general government's final consumption expenditure (% GDP) as a measure of government expenditure and was sourced from WDI. The number of telephone subscribers per 100 as a proxy for infrastructure. Domestic capital is estimated as a percentage of a gross fixed capital formation relative to GDP. Population (% Annual) was used as a proxy for the population growth rate.

本研究针对28个非洲国家，探究金融发展与外资银行在包容型增长（inclusive growth）关系中的调节作用。研究发现，外资银行参与度对包容型增长具有正向影响，而发达的金融体系能够强化这一正向效应；同时，金融发展本身对包容型增长亦存在直接正向影响。
本研究采用亚洲开发银行包容型增长指标体系中35项变量里的9项，具体包括：使用改良水源的人口占比、至少享有基本卫生设施的人口占比、通电人口占比、就业人口比率、使用改良饮用水的人口占比；以及涵盖教育、健康与收入公平维度的人类发展指数（Human Development Index, HDI）、腐败管控水平、话语权与问责制、移动蜂窝用户订阅量及政府效能。其中，人类发展指数取自人类发展报告署（Human Development Report Office），腐败管控、话语权与问责制、政府效能的数据取自世界治理指标（World Governance Indicators, WGI），其余变量均来自世界发展指标（World Development Indicators, WDI）。研究通过主成分分析（principal component analysis）构建包容型增长综合指数，随后采用最小-最大归一化（minimum-maximum approach）方法对该指数进行标准化处理。因此，当指数趋近于1时，代表该国包容型增长水平较高，反之则代表增长水平较低。
本研究以外资银行资产占全能银行总资产的比率作为外资银行参与度的代理变量，该数值越接近1，代表外资银行参与度越高，反之则越低，该数据取自Bank Scope数据库。采用Sviryzdenka（2016）构建的金融发展指数作为金融发展水平的代理变量，数据取自国际货币基金组织（International Monetary Fund, IMF），该指数取值范围为0（金融欠发达）至1（金融高度发达）。以消费者物价指数（Consumer Price Index, CPI）衡量的通胀水平，用于表征一国宏观经济（不）稳定性。以进出口总额占GDP的比重作为贸易开放度的衡量指标，数据取自世界发展指标（WDI）。银行集中度（%）的数据取自世界银行全球金融数据库。本研究采用六项制度质量指标的平均值作为制度质量的代理变量，数据取自世界治理指标（WGI），该综合指数涵盖法治水平、政府效能、话语权与问责制、腐败管控、政治稳定性与无暴力程度、监管质量六个维度，取值范围为-2.5（制度质量薄弱）至2.5（制度质量优良）。
本研究以一般政府最终消费支出（占GDP比重）作为政府支出的衡量指标，数据取自世界发展指标（WDI）。以每百人固定电话用户数作为基础设施水平的代理变量。国内资本以固定资产形成总额占GDP的比重进行估算。以年度人口增长率（%）作为人口增速的代理变量。