European bird declines: do we need to rethink approaches to the management of abundant generalist predators?

Bird species are declining across Europe. Current European policy, i.e.
the Birds and Habitats Directives, focus on habitat management as a way of
halting the declines. This paper explores the role of predation in causing
bird population declines and asks if we need to reconsider our approach to
the management of generalist predators.  We analysed bird
population trends and distribution changes across Europe, Britain and
Ireland, reflecting an increasing gradient of generalist predator
abundance (principally red fox Vulpes vulpes and species
of the family Corvidae). We tested if ground-nesting
bird species, considered more vulnerable to predation,were in
greater decline compared to other nesting strategies. We also
compared Annex I designated species to non-designated species as a proxy
for habitat management. We found that across Europe, 74% of ground-nesting
bird species were in decline, compared to 41% of other species. This was
especially evident in Britain, where the pattern was 66% compared to 31%,
and in Ireland, 71% compared to 20%. Ground-nesting species were
significantly more likely to be declining than other species. These
patterns are consistent with the idea that population declines are at
least partially related to the increased abundance of generalist
predators. In Britain, ground-nesting species were less likely to be in
decline if covered by Annex I designation. However, in Europe and Ireland,
Annex I status did not mitigate the effect of nesting strategy. 
Policy implications. Current legislation is clearly insufficient to
prevent widespread declines in ground-nesting birds, and this is the case
across Europe, in Britain and Ireland. Ignoring the role of generalist
predators in modern landscapes may lead to further declines and losses. We
urgently need large-scale experiments to establish causality in the impact
of generalist predators on ground-nesting birds in different landscapes.
If we value our ground-nesting bird species, consideration needs to be
given to the control of widespread generalist predators, at least until
landscapes are restored.