Conservative bias in perceptions of public opinion among citizens: perceived social norms about abortion rights in post-Roe United States

Politicians appear to overestimate how conservative public opinion is both in the United States and in other Western democracies. Whether this “conservative bias” is peculiar to political elites or it extends also to voters is less clear, yet has major implications for beliefs formation and behaviors. I address this question in the context of abortion access in the US after the Dobbs decision. Despite the salience and availability of public opinion polls on the topic, original survey data collected after the Supreme Court decision show a consistent underestimation of public support for abortion access. Individuals identifying as “pro-life” drive most of this underestimation, suggesting the presence of egocentric biases in which “pro-life” Americans overestimate the commonality of their views. Conservative biases among voters may contribute to a skewed information environment for politicians, potentially providing leverage for further restrictions on abortion access.