Ethnopolitical Rebellion, a Cross-Sectional Analysis of the 1980s with Risk Assessments for the 1990s

A synthetic theoretical model built on both deprivation and resources mobilization arguments is constructed to explain ethnopolitical rebellion for the 1980s and to provide risk assessments for the 1990s. The principal investigators hypothesize that ethnopolitial groups that produce residuals below the regression line will likely exhibit rebellious behavior in the early 1990s. They use a three-stage least squares estimator, analyze the coefficients and standard errors, and also examine the residuals. The PIs find broad support for the theoretical synthesis, but focus attention on the risk assessments. In addition to identifying ethnopolitical groups that did resort to greater violence in the early 1990s, the theoretical model helps to explain why a number of groups that the analysis suggested would rebel in the early 1990s have not, in fact, done so.