Agro-industrial cotton chain and price transmission to the brazilian consumer

Abstract: This paper has two main objectives. Firstly, to analyze the flow of transactions in the cotton value chain, identifying all steps from the purchase of inputs, followed by agricultural production, processing, including industrial uses of fiber and cottonseed. Secondly, to identify, through applied time series models, the direction and speed of transmission of shocks in cotton fiber prices over clothing prices to the final consumer. Seed cotton undergoes processing, generating cottonseed, cotton fiber, fibril, and fiber by-products. The cottonseed is intended for animal feed, crushing, and/or delinting. Cotton fiber has industrial uses and is one that adds the most added value. Spinning is the first link of the textile industry, following, together with synthetic fibers, to produce yarn, to weaving, knitting, clothing, obtaining the garments and accessories, or bed, table, and bath line or even products, bags, etc., which are sold in the wholesale and retail markets. Then, we want to understand how advances in efficiency in cotton production reached the Brazilian consumer. It is about evaluating, over time, the transmission of prices of the feather over the prices of yarns, weaving, clothing, and clothing at retail. Data from January 2000 to December 2018 are used. The results showed a greater relationship between cotton fiber price and yarn prices and a low impact on subsequent links. It is understood that the low interrelation of cotton prices with the prices of other products in the textile chain is the result of the significant volume and value of imports of synthetic fibers and manufactured products.

摘要：本研究包含两大核心目标。其一，剖析棉花价值链的交易流转路径，明确从生产资料采购、农业生产到加工环节（涵盖纤维与棉籽的工业应用）的全部流程。其二，借助应用时间序列模型，探究棉花纤维价格向服装价格的冲击传导方向与速度，直至终端消费者。
籽棉经加工后可产出棉籽、棉纤维、原纤（fibril）以及纤维副产物。棉籽可用于动物饲料制备、油脂压榨或剥绒处理。棉纤维具备工业应用价值，是增值幅度最高的品类之一。
纺纱是纺织工业的首个环节，后续可与合成纤维一同加工为纱线，再经织造、针织工序制成服装，最终得到成衣与配饰，或床品、餐厨、卫浴系列产品，亦或是箱包等其他制品，此类产品均通过批发与零售渠道流通销售。
随后本研究旨在明晰棉花生产效率的提升如何传导至巴西终端消费者，具体将随时间推移评估棉花纤维价格向纱线价格、织造环节价格、服装价格以及零售端服装价格的传导过程。本研究采用2000年1月至2018年12月的相关数据。
研究结果表明，棉花纤维价格与纱线价格之间存在较强的相关性，而对后续产业链环节的影响则相对有限。经分析可知，棉花价格与纺织链条中其他产品价格的联动性偏弱，这一现象源于合成纤维与制成品的进口规模及进口额均处于较高水平。