Improving estimates of the links between child marriage and poor fertility outcomes in India

Over 44.5% of Indian women aged 20 and 24 years are estimated to have had child marriages. These women are at high risk for maternal morbidity and mortality. Most recently, Raj (2009) reported estimates of the effects of child marriage on poor fertility outcomes in India. However, this study had several methodological problems. Since large resources are currently being devoted to these issues, it is important to have accurate information. Hence, we improve the methods of Raj (2009). We find there is less consistency in the differences between adult and child marriages for fertility related outcomes than is reported in Raj (2009). We also find that the differences may be largely functions of marriage duration and not of only having had a child marriage. We identify two policy initiatives for improving outcomes for young adult women in child marriages, and these are reducing sterilization and increasing contraception usage.

据估算，20至24岁的印度女性中，逾44.5%曾经历童婚（child marriage）。此类女性罹患孕产妇疾病及死亡的风险显著升高。
近期，Raj（2009）发表了关于印度童婚对不良生育结局影响的评估结果。然而，该研究存在多项方法论缺陷。
鉴于当前学界及相关领域已投入大量资源于此议题，获取精准的研究信息至关重要。因此，本文对Raj（2009）的研究方法进行了优化改进。
研究发现，生育相关结局在成年婚配与童婚群体间的差异，相较于Raj（2009）报告的结果，一致性更低。
本研究同时证实，上述差异在很大程度上由婚姻时长决定，而非仅取决于是否为童婚。
最后，本文明确了两项可改善童婚育龄女性结局的政策举措：一是减少绝育手术的使用，二是提升避孕措施的普及率。